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Posted on March 9, 2012 by Paul Maslin

A Guide to the 2012 Electoral Vote

Given the unprecedented nature of the Republican nominating process this year, I took a few minutes post-Super Tuesday to reflect on the likely outcomes, opportunities and challenges that this cycle presents to us as Democrats which I’d like to share with you.

A Guide to the 2012 Electoral Vote

It Still Could Be Close. A Surprisingly Small Number of States Will Be in Play. Among The Most Important are “New Economy” States in the Southeast and West. The Ultimate GOP Ticket Will Matter. Watch Out Democrats: Florida Could Well Be Back.

The Republican nomination process may now be exiting a somewhat surprising period where any outcome but the one the consensus had been so confidently predicting for a year seemed possible. Mitt Romney won’t win a quick strike victory with easy glide path to Tampa as has been the case for most nominees in each party since 1980. Rather he should, after his narrow escapes in Michigan and Ohio, win a long slog a la Obama 2008 or Mondale 1984, yet all the while conscious of a potentially game changing late entry from Stage Slightly Right (Christie/Daniels/Jeb Bush) should he stumble. Or Rick Santorum could still galvanize the right wing should Newt Gingrich drop out and, at the very least, force his way on the ticket as a running mate and perhaps more.

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